Medium Risk
Some ambiguity present. Human review recommended before large positions.
Moderate rule clarity (73/100). The market is generally well-structured with solid time clarity and outcome definition. Note: Resolution source relies on vague terms such as "credible reporting" or "substantial evidence". Ambiguity is limited but traders should review the full resolution criteria before trading.
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
20/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
Resolution source is referenced; an official body or named data provider is cited.
14/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.
18/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
Evidence standards are implied by context but not formally defined.
5/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Some edge cases are considered; postponement or revision scenarios are referenced.
9/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Post-trade risk is low; resolution depends on publicly verifiable events.
7/10
How this market settles
No on-chain dispute record available
Polymarket markets resolve via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. The Gamma API did not return dispute metadata for this market, so no challenge history can be confirmed here.
Volume
$1.4M
24h Change
+0.2pp
Liquidity
$45K
24h Volume
$5K
End Date
July 19, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Resolution Source
https://www.fifa.com/en/
Description
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Spain is eliminated. If Spain wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Spain is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Spain based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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