Low Risk
Resolution criteria are well-specified with low post-trade dispute risk.
Strong rule clarity (75/100). This market scores well across time clarity and resolution source. Traders can have high confidence that the resolution criteria are unambiguous and verifiable.
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
20/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
Resolution source is explicitly named and authoritative.
20/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.
18/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
Evidence standards are implied by context but not formally defined.
5/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Basic edge cases may be implied but are not explicitly documented in the rules.
5/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Post-trade risk is low; resolution depends on publicly verifiable events.
7/10
How this market settles
Resolution status available
Gamma exposes a resolution status for this market (shown below).
Volume
$167K
24h Change
+38.5pp
Liquidity
$181K
24h Volume
$134K
End Date
June 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM UTC
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmusk
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 18 12:00 PM ET to June 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Same category or risk level
Outcomes
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
